If
you're in the UK, you might be looking out of your window at
sunshine
and wondering if you really have to follow the government's instruction
to stay home.
Spain
Coronavirus Cases:
124,736
Deaths:
11,744
Recovered:
34,219
Well, this is what lies behind the government's thinking:
- Scientists currently believe that each person infected with Covid-19 infects a further 2.5 people over the course of around five days
- That means that 30 days after the first infection, 406 people will have the virus
- If we reduce our exposure by half, that first infection would only have led to 15 other infections in 30 days - less than 5% of 406
Of
course, it's not guaranteed that we can reduce our exposures by half,
and it takes a few weeks for the effect of any intervention to show up.
But if we reduce exposure by, say, a third, the reduction is just over 85% (or 53 infections).
Look at the graphic below, which may make the maths a little clearer.
Source: BBC
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